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Livenerf — a launch-day baseline for Opus 5.5, with everything except the model pinned
Livenerf (Python, no license file, 609 stars, 39 commits, one author, created September 22, the day Opus 5.5 shipped, no releases) is a daily benchmark for one question: does a model get worse after launch? It runs through headless Claude Code on a Max subscription and is built on the UK AI Security Institute's Inspect framework. Sampling can't be fixed, so it fixes everything else: frozen prompts, exact graders, raw logs kept forever, and a pinned Claude Code CLI. The runner refuses to start if claude --version stops matching the recorded version, because "a changed harness looks exactly like a changed model." The panel is 78 questions from GPQA Diamond, MMLU-Pro, competition math and AIME, chosen from 2,336 because Opus 5.5 gets them right only some of the time; a question it always or never gets right cannot show a change. Days 1–10 are the baseline, followed by 10-day windows, and a change has to clear a pre-registered 99% threshold in two consecutive windows. The first possible verdict is around October 24. Output tokens per sample are a second signal, because lower effort shows up there before it shows up in accuracy.
The README is specific about what the instrument cannot see. In validation, dropping effort to low cut output tokens by 62% and accuracy by 8.3 points (+/- 4.5), which it detects. Swapping in Opus 5 could not be distinguished from Opus 5.5 at 99% (a 3.8-point drop, +/- 6.3), so a same-family swap of that size may get through. An audit of the panel found 8 answer keys that look wrong and 30 ambiguous questions. They stay in, with a pre-registered rerun that leaves them out. The HN thread (680 points, 268 comments) raised two objections that matter. First, a public benchmark that runs on a fixed schedule is easy for a provider to recognize and treat differently, and the author agrees that nobody outside the provider can rule this out. Second, it measures the subscription path through Claude Code, and several commenters argue that path behaves differently from the API. Other trackers exist, including Nerf Bench and MarginLab's Claude Code tracker. What this one adds is the pre-registration and a start date of launch day.
Reach for it if your team argues about whether the model got worse and nobody has numbers. You can watch the public series, or fork the method for the model you actually depend on. Delete the Slack thread titled "is it just me or is Opus worse today." Tradeoffs: no verdict until late October; no license file, so you can read the code but have no stated right to reuse it; by its own estimate the daily run uses about 3.6% of a weekly Max plan; and it tracks one model, through one harness, on reasoning questions rather than coding tasks.